Standing view · population · Salford
falling, held with strong confidence, formed on 31 August 2026 from movements in 2025.
The crude birth rate in Salford fell to 11.7 per thousand residents in 2023, and the general fertility rate from 48.3 live births per thousand women of childbearing age in 2023 to 48.2 in 2024 and 45.5 in 2025. The total fertility rate was 1.33 in 2023. Population rose from 293,508 in 2024 to 297,004 in 2025. The fertility rate fell in three consecutive readings while the population grew, which is a consistent picture.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about Salford. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Crude birth rate | 2023 | falling |
| General fertility rate (GFR) | 2023 | falling |
| General fertility rate (GFR) | 2024 | falling |
| General fertility rate (GFR) | 2025 | falling |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| Total fertility rate (TFR) | 2023 | — |
| Population | 2024 | — |
| Population | 2025 | — |