Standing view · population · Isles of Scilly
falling, held with established confidence, formed on 5 October 2026 from movements in 2025.
Crude birth rate in the Isles of Scilly has been falling. The crude birth rate was 5.5 in 2024 and was recorded as falling against the usual pattern for its year, the single directional reading here. The general fertility rate (GFR) was 22.2 in 2023 and 28.8 in 2024, the total fertility rate (TFR) 0.73 in 2023, 0.91 in 2024 and 1.05 in 2025, and population 2,383 in 2024 and 2,299 in 2025. On a population of that size the annual counts are tiny, so a single year's movement carries limited weight, and the view is held as established.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about Isles of Scilly. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Crude birth rate | 2024 | falling |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| General fertility rate (GFR) | 2023 | — |
| Total fertility rate (TFR) | 2023 | — |
| Population | 2024 | — |
| General fertility rate (GFR) | 2024 | — |
| Total fertility rate (TFR) | 2024 | — |
| Population | 2025 | — |
| Total fertility rate (TFR) | 2025 | — |