Standing view · population · North Somerset
falling, held with established confidence, formed on 5 October 2026 from movements in 2025.
General fertility rate in North Somerset has been falling, and the view is held as established on a consistent set. The general fertility rate (GFR) was 48.6 in 2024 and 45.3 in 2025, and the crude birth rate 8.2 in 2024 and 7.7 in 2025, each of those recorded as falling against the usual pattern for its year. The total fertility rate (TFR) stood at 1.44 in 2024 and 1.35 in 2025, and population at 224,667 in 2024 and 227,160 in 2025. Births falling on every measure while the population grows.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about North Somerset. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Crude birth rate | 2024 | falling |
| General fertility rate (GFR) | 2024 | falling |
| Crude birth rate | 2025 | falling |
| General fertility rate (GFR) | 2025 | falling |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| Population | 2024 | — |
| Total fertility rate (TFR) | 2024 | — |
| Population | 2025 | — |
| Total fertility rate (TFR) | 2025 | — |