Standing view · labour_market · East Devon
deteriorating, held with established confidence, formed on 31 August 2026 from movements in 2026-07.
The claimant count in East Devon rose to 1,815 in January 2026 and 1,865 in March, with 1,840 in February and 1,750 in May both recorded as favourable against the usual pattern for their months. Long-term sickness accounted for 36.8% of the economically inactive in the year to December 2025, rising to 39.2% by March 2026. The rise in long-term sickness is the clearer movement here; the claimant count changed direction twice across five months within a narrow range.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about East Devon. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Claimant count | 2026-01 | deteriorating |
| Claimant count | 2026-02 | improving |
| Claimant count | 2026-03 | deteriorating |
| Claimant count | 2026-05 | improving |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| % of economically inactive long-term sick | 2025-12 | rising |
| % of economically inactive long-term sick | 2026-03 | rising |