Standing view · labour_market · North Devon
mixed, held with tentative confidence, formed on 31 August 2026 from movements in 2026-07.
The claimant count in North Devon rose to 1,840 in March 2026, when the proportion of residents aged 16 to 64 claiming rose to 3.2%, then fell to 1,615 in May with the rate at 2.8%, and to 1,595 in June and 1,560 in July with the rate at 2.7%. Long-term sickness accounted for 43.7% of the economically inactive in the year to March 2026. Claims are well below their March level on both measures, with one unfavourable reading in June.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about North Devon. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Claimant count | 2026-03 | deteriorating |
| Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 | 2026-03 | deteriorating |
| Claimant count | 2026-05 | improving |
| Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 | 2026-05 | improving |
| Claimant count | 2026-06 | deteriorating |
| Claimant count | 2026-07 | improving |
| Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 | 2026-07 | improving |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| % of economically inactive long-term sick | 2026-03 | rising |