Standing view · population · Dartford
falling, held with strong confidence, formed on 31 August 2026 from movements in 2025.
The crude birth rate in Dartford fell to 12.4 per thousand residents in 2023, and the general fertility rate to 57.1 live births per thousand women of childbearing age. Live births fell to 1,505 in 2023 and 1,582 in 2024, and the total fertility rate was 1.58 in 2023. Population rose from 124,594 in 2024 to 126,297 in 2025. Three fertility measures moved the same way, with the birth count recorded as falling in both years despite being higher in 2024 than 2023, because the population grew faster.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about Dartford. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Crude birth rate | 2023 | falling |
| General fertility rate (GFR) | 2023 | falling |
| Live births | 2023 | falling |
| Live births | 2024 | falling |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| Total fertility rate (TFR) | 2023 | — |
| Population | 2024 | — |
| Population | 2025 | — |