Standing view · labour_market · Arun
deteriorating, held with strong confidence, formed on 31 August 2026 from movements in 2026-07.
The claimant count in Arun rose to 3,610 in February 2026 and 3,650 in March, easing to 3,510 in June. The proportion of residents aged 16 to 64 claiming improved to 3.5% in December 2025 before rising to 3.8% in February. Economic inactivity worsened to 22.7% in the year to December 2025. Among the inactive in the year to March 2026, 51.3% were long-term sick and 18.4% were retired. Claims, the claimant rate and inactivity all moved unfavourably, which is why the reading is firm despite the recent easing.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about Arun. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| % who are economically inactive - aged 16-64 | 2025-12 | deteriorating |
| Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 | 2025-12 | improving |
| Claimant count | 2026-02 | deteriorating |
| Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 | 2026-02 | deteriorating |
| Claimant count | 2026-03 | deteriorating |
| Claimant count | 2026-06 | deteriorating |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| % of economically inactive long-term sick | 2026-03 | rising |
| % of economically inactive retired | 2026-03 | falling |