Standing view · business · Arun
deteriorating, held with strong confidence, formed on 31 August 2026 from movements in 2026-06.
Business births in Arun have fallen in every reading recorded, from 135 in the second quarter of 2025 to 125 in the fourth and 125 again in the second quarter of 2026. Business deaths fell over the same period, from 145 to 125 and then 115, before rising to 170 in the first quarter of 2026. Fewer new firms forming, combined with that recent rise in closures, points one way. There were 6,340 business sites in 2025, a figure that describes the size of the base rather than its direction.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about Arun. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Business births | 2025-06 | deteriorating |
| Business deaths | 2025-06 | improving |
| Business deaths | 2025-09 | improving |
| Business births | 2025-12 | deteriorating |
| Business deaths | 2025-12 | improving |
| Business deaths | 2026-03 | deteriorating |
| Business births | 2026-06 | deteriorating |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| Business sites | 2025 | — |