Standing view · labour_market · Adur
deteriorating, held with established confidence, formed on 5 October 2026 from movements in 2026-07.
The claimant count in Adur rose to 1,140 in January 2026, 1,215 in February and 1,175 in May, each recorded as unfavourable against the usual pattern for its month. The employment rate among those aged 16 to 64 was 81.5% in the year to March 2026, a favourable movement, and the share who were economically inactive 17.5% in the year to December 2025, also favourable. Long-term sick made up 22% of the economically inactive in the year to December 2025 and 21.6% in the year to March 2026; students made up 34.7%.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about Adur. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| % who are economically inactive - aged 16-64 | 2025-12 | improving |
| Claimant count | 2026-01 | deteriorating |
| Claimant count | 2026-02 | deteriorating |
| Employment rate - aged 16-64 | 2026-03 | improving |
| Claimant count | 2026-05 | deteriorating |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| % of economically inactive long-term sick | 2025-12 | falling |
| % of economically inactive long-term sick | 2026-03 | falling |
| % of economically inactive student | 2026-03 | rising |