Standing view · population · Salford
falling, held with strong confidence, formed on 5 October 2026 from movements in 2025.
Crude birth rate in Salford has been falling, and the view is held strongly. The crude birth rate was 11.7 in 2023 and the general fertility rate (GFR) 48.3 in that year, 48.2 in 2024 and 45.5 in 2025, each of those recorded as falling against the usual pattern for its year. The total fertility rate (TFR) stood at 1.33 in 2023, and population at 293,508 in 2024 and 297,004 in 2025. Three consecutive falling years on the fertility rate while the population grew puts the growth outside births.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about Salford. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Crude birth rate | 2023 | falling |
| General fertility rate (GFR) | 2023 | falling |
| General fertility rate (GFR) | 2024 | falling |
| General fertility rate (GFR) | 2025 | falling |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| Total fertility rate (TFR) | 2023 | — |
| Population | 2024 | — |
| Population | 2025 | — |