Standing view · population · Basildon
falling, held with strong confidence, formed on 31 August 2026 from movements in 2025.
The general fertility rate in Basildon fell from 54.5 live births per thousand women of childbearing age in 2024 to 53.1 in 2025. Live births fell to 2,079 in 2024 and the crude birth rate to 10.8 per thousand residents. The total fertility rate dropped from 1.68 in 2023 to 1.56 in 2024. Population rose over the same period, from 192,810 in 2024 to 193,489 in 2025. Fewer births in a slightly larger population is a consistent picture, and four separate fertility measures moving the same way makes it a firm one.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about Basildon. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Crude birth rate | 2024 | falling |
| General fertility rate (GFR) | 2024 | falling |
| Live births | 2024 | falling |
| General fertility rate (GFR) | 2025 | falling |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| Total fertility rate (TFR) | 2023 | — |
| Population | 2024 | — |
| Total fertility rate (TFR) | 2024 | — |
| Population | 2025 | — |