Standing view · labour_market · Adur
deteriorating, held with established confidence, formed on 31 August 2026 from movements in 2026-07.
The claimant count in Adur rose from 1,140 in January 2026 to 1,215 in February, and stood at 1,175 in May. Two of the three readings show increases. Other measures point the other way: the employment rate improved to 81.5% in the year to March 2026, and economic inactivity improved to 17.5% in the year to December 2025. Among the inactive, 22% were long-term sick in the year to December 2025, easing to 21.6% by March 2026, and 34.7% were students. The claimant figures are monthly; the survey measures lag by a year.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about Adur. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| % who are economically inactive - aged 16-64 | 2025-12 | improving |
| Claimant count | 2026-01 | deteriorating |
| Claimant count | 2026-02 | deteriorating |
| Employment rate - aged 16-64 | 2026-03 | improving |
| Claimant count | 2026-05 | deteriorating |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| % of economically inactive long-term sick | 2025-12 | falling |
| % of economically inactive long-term sick | 2026-03 | falling |
| % of economically inactive student | 2026-03 | rising |