Standing view · labour_market · Perth and Kinross
deteriorating, held with established confidence, formed on 5 October 2026 from movements in 2026-08.
The job market in Perth and Kinross has been weakening. The claimant count was 2,195 in February 2026 and 2,135 in May, both recorded as unfavourable against the usual pattern for their month, with those aged 16-64 who are economically inactive at 21.9 in the year to March 2026 also unfavourable. Nothing in this evidence runs the other way. Of the economically inactive, 30.7 were long-term sick in the year to March 2026 and 17.5 retired in the year to December 2025. Three unfavourable readings with none against, though the series stops in May.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about Perth and Kinross. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Claimant count | 2026-02 | deteriorating |
| % who are economically inactive - aged 16-64 | 2026-03 | deteriorating |
| Claimant count | 2026-05 | deteriorating |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| % of economically inactive retired | 2025-12 | — |
| % of economically inactive long-term sick | 2026-03 | — |