Standing view · labour_market · Mole Valley
improving, held with established confidence, formed on 31 August 2026 from movements in 2026-07.
The claimant count in Mole Valley improved to 900 in December 2025, then rose to 950 in January 2026, 995 in February and 1,000 in March, improved to 960 in May and rose again to 995 in July. Modelled unemployment improved to 1,100 in the year to March 2026, and the proportion of residents aged 16 to 64 claiming eased to 1.7% in December 2025. The count ends the period above its December level despite two favourable readings in between.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about Mole Valley. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Claimant count | 2025-12 | improving |
| Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 | 2025-12 | improving |
| Claimant count | 2026-01 | deteriorating |
| Claimant count | 2026-02 | deteriorating |
| Claimant count | 2026-03 | deteriorating |
| Unemployment count (model based) | 2026-03 | improving |
| Claimant count | 2026-05 | improving |
| Claimant count | 2026-07 | deteriorating |