Standing view · labour_market · North Ayrshire
improving, held with established confidence, formed on 5 October 2026 from movements in 2026-08.
The job market in North Ayrshire has been getting stronger. The employment rate for those aged 16-64 was 73.6 in the year to March 2026, recorded as favourable against the usual pattern for its period, with the claimant count at 3,300 in July 2026 and claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 at 4.1 in the same month, also favourable. Against that, the count was 3,270 in February 2026, 3,285 in April and 3,395 in August, and the proportion 4.1 in February, all unfavourable. Of the inactive, 46.1 were long-term sick — a high share.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about North Ayrshire. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Claimant count | 2026-02 | deteriorating |
| Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 | 2026-02 | deteriorating |
| Employment rate - aged 16-64 | 2026-03 | improving |
| Claimant count | 2026-04 | deteriorating |
| Claimant count | 2026-07 | improving |
| Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 | 2026-07 | improving |
| Claimant count | 2026-08 | deteriorating |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| % of economically inactive long-term sick | 2026-03 | — |