Standing view · business · City of London
deteriorating, held with established confidence, formed on 31 August 2026 from movements in 2026-06.
Business births in the City of London fell to 430 in the second quarter of 2025 and 415 in the second quarter of 2026. Closures rose to 420 in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 435 in the first quarter of 2026, above formations in the nearest quarter published. Formations falling while closures rise, with closures now the larger of the two, points one way on both measures. The City held 27,050 business sites in 2025, including 3,055 businesses employing between five and nine people, 760 employing 50 to 99 and 115 employing 500 to 999.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about City of London. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Business births | 2025-06 | deteriorating |
| Business deaths | 2025-12 | deteriorating |
| Business deaths | 2026-03 | deteriorating |
| Business births | 2026-06 | deteriorating |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| Businesses employing 5 to 9 people | 2025 | — |
| Businesses employing 50 to 99 people | 2025 | — |
| Businesses employing 500 to 999 people | 2025 | — |
| Business sites | 2025 | — |