Standing view · labour_market · Perth and Kinross, and Stirling
deteriorating, held with established confidence, formed on 31 August 2026 from movements in 2026-07.
The claimant count in Perth and Kinross and Stirling rose to 3,630 in March 2026, and the proportion of residents aged 16 to 64 claiming eased to 2.3% in April. Payrolled employees rose from 106,258 in February 2026 to 107,859 in May, 109,023 in June and 109,150 in July, but all four readings ran below their seasonal norm. The unemployment rate fell to 3.2% in the year to March 2026, when 19.1% of the economically inactive were retired.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about Perth and Kinross, and Stirling. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Payrolled employees | 2026-02 | deteriorating |
| Unemployment rate - aged 16-64 | 2026-03 | improving |
| Claimant count | 2026-03 | deteriorating |
| Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 | 2026-04 | improving |
| Payrolled employees | 2026-05 | deteriorating |
| Payrolled employees | 2026-06 | deteriorating |
| Payrolled employees | 2026-07 | deteriorating |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| % of economically inactive retired | 2026-03 | — |