Standing view · labour_market · Arun
deteriorating, held with strong confidence, formed on 5 October 2026 from movements in 2026-08.
The claimant count in Arun rose to 3,610 in February 2026 and 3,650 in March, both recorded as unfavourable against the usual pattern for their months, then 3,510 in June, 3,465 in July and 3,500 in August. Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16 to 64 stood at 3.8% in February 2026. Long-term sick made up 51.3% of the economically inactive in the year to March 2026 and retired people 18.4%. Six of the eight readings moved unfavourably.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about Arun. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Claimant count | 2026-02 | deteriorating |
| Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 | 2026-02 | deteriorating |
| Claimant count | 2026-03 | deteriorating |
| Claimant count | 2026-06 | deteriorating |
| Claimant count | 2026-07 | improving |
| Claimant count | 2026-08 | deteriorating |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| % of economically inactive long-term sick | 2026-03 | rising |
| % of economically inactive retired | 2026-03 | falling |