Standing view · labour_market · Highlands and Islands
improving, held with strong confidence, formed on 5 October 2026 from movements in 2026-08.
The job market in Highlands and Islands has been getting stronger at this geography too, on the same series. The claimant count was 6,945 in April 2026, 6,780 in May, 6,680 in June and 6,510 in July 2026, each recorded as favourable against the usual pattern for its month, with claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 at 2.4 in April, 2.3 in May and 2.2 in July, all favourable. Of the economically inactive in the year to March 2026, 34.4 were retired. Four consecutive months of falls that clear the seasonal pattern is what makes this view strong.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about Highlands and Islands. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Claimant count | 2026-04 | improving |
| Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 | 2026-04 | improving |
| Claimant count | 2026-05 | improving |
| Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 | 2026-05 | improving |
| Claimant count | 2026-06 | improving |
| Claimant count | 2026-07 | improving |
| Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 | 2026-07 | improving |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| % of economically inactive retired | 2026-03 | — |