Standing view · population · Dartford
falling, held with strong confidence, formed on 5 October 2026 from movements in 2025.
Crude birth rate in Dartford has been falling, and the whole birth series moves with it. The crude birth rate was 12.4 in 2023, the general fertility rate (GFR) 57.1 and live births 1,505, each recorded as falling against the usual pattern for its year, with live births of 1,582 in 2024 also falling. The total fertility rate (TFR) stood at 1.58 in 2023. Population rose over the same period, at 124,594 in 2024 and 126,297 in 2025. Births falling while the population grows means the growth is not coming from within; it is migration and longer lives.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about Dartford. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Crude birth rate | 2023 | falling |
| General fertility rate (GFR) | 2023 | falling |
| Live births | 2023 | falling |
| Live births | 2024 | falling |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| Total fertility rate (TFR) | 2023 | — |
| Population | 2024 | — |
| Population | 2025 | — |