Standing view · labour_market · Perth and Kinross
deteriorating, held with established confidence, formed on 31 August 2026 from movements in 2026-07.
Economic inactivity in Perth and Kinross rose to 21.9% in the year to March 2026, of which 30.7% were long-term sick, and 17.5% were retired in the year to December 2025. Modelled unemployment rose to 2,500 over that year. The claimant count rose to 2,195 in February 2026 and stood at 2,135 in May, the latter recorded as unfavourable against the usual pattern for that month. Four measures from two producers moved unfavourably.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about Perth and Kinross. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Unemployment count (model based) | 2025-12 | deteriorating |
| Claimant count | 2026-02 | deteriorating |
| % who are economically inactive - aged 16-64 | 2026-03 | deteriorating |
| Claimant count | 2026-05 | deteriorating |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| % of economically inactive retired | 2025-12 | — |
| % of economically inactive long-term sick | 2026-03 | — |