Standing view · labour_market · Perth and Kinross, and Stirling
deteriorating, held with strong confidence, formed on 5 October 2026 from movements in 2026-08.
The job market in Perth and Kinross, and Stirling has been weakening, and the view is held strongly. Payrolled employees stood at 107,859 in May 2026, 109,023 in June and 109,150 in July 2026, each recorded as unfavourable against the usual pattern for its month, with the claimant count at 3,630 in March 2026 and those aged 16-64 who are economically inactive at 22.6 in the year to March 2026, also unfavourable. Only claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 at 2.3 in April read favourably. Of the inactive, 31.2 were long-term sick and 19.1 retired.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about Perth and Kinross, and Stirling. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| % who are economically inactive - aged 16-64 | 2026-03 | deteriorating |
| Claimant count | 2026-03 | deteriorating |
| Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 | 2026-04 | improving |
| Payrolled employees | 2026-05 | deteriorating |
| Payrolled employees | 2026-06 | deteriorating |
| Payrolled employees | 2026-07 | deteriorating |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| % of economically inactive long-term sick | 2026-03 | rising |
| % of economically inactive retired | 2026-03 | — |