Standing view · labour_market · Moray
deteriorating, held with established confidence, formed on 5 October 2026 from movements in 2026-08.
The job market in Moray has been weakening. The claimant count was 1,575 in March 2026, 1,545 in May and 1,515 in August 2026, each recorded as unfavourable against the usual pattern for its month even where the level fell. Running the other way, the count was 1,455 in July 2026 and claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 2.5 in the same month, both favourable. Of the economically inactive in the year to March 2026, 37.8 were long-term sick, 10.2 looking after family or home and 5.9 students. Three unfavourable readings against two.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about Moray. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Claimant count | 2026-03 | deteriorating |
| Claimant count | 2026-05 | deteriorating |
| Claimant count | 2026-07 | improving |
| Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 | 2026-07 | improving |
| Claimant count | 2026-08 | deteriorating |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| % of economically inactive long-term sick | 2026-03 | rising |
| % of economically inactive looking after family/home | 2026-03 | falling |
| % of economically inactive student | 2026-03 | falling |