Standing view · labour_market · Enfield
deteriorating, held with established confidence, formed on 31 August 2026 from movements in 2026-07.
Modelled unemployment in Enfield rose to 14,400 in the year to March 2026 and the modelled unemployment rate to 7% in the year to December 2025. The claimant count improved to 14,365 in January 2026 but rose to 15,145 in May, and the proportion of residents aged 16 to 64 claiming was 7% in February and 7.2% in May. Among the economically inactive, 11.9% were long-term sick and 4.6% retired. Four measures from two producers moved unfavourably.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about Enfield. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate (model based) | 2025-12 | deteriorating |
| Claimant count | 2026-01 | improving |
| Unemployment count (model based) | 2026-03 | deteriorating |
| Claimant count | 2026-05 | deteriorating |
| Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 | 2026-05 | deteriorating |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 | 2026-02 | — |
| % of economically inactive long-term sick | 2026-03 | falling |
| % of economically inactive retired | 2026-03 | falling |