Standing view · business · Carmarthenshire
deteriorating, held with established confidence, formed on 31 August 2026 from movements in 2026-06.
Business deaths in Carmarthenshire rose to 165 in the first quarter of 2025 and 175 in the second, fell to 130 in the fourth, then rose again to 185 in the first quarter of 2026. No figure for formations is published over the same period, so nothing here offsets the rise in closures. Closures have changed direction twice but end the period at their highest of the four readings. There were 840 businesses employing between five and nine people in 2025 and 175 employing 20 to 49. Membership organisations employed 350 people in 2024.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about Carmarthenshire. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Business deaths | 2025-03 | deteriorating |
| Business deaths | 2025-06 | deteriorating |
| Business deaths | 2025-12 | improving |
| Business deaths | 2026-03 | deteriorating |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| 94 : Activities of membership organisations | 2024 | — |
| Businesses employing 20 to 49 people | 2025 | — |
| Businesses employing 5 to 9 people | 2025 | — |