Standing view · population · Dover
falling, held with strong confidence, formed on 5 October 2026 from movements in 2025.
Live births in Dover has been falling, and every birth measure moves with it. Live births numbered 990 in 2023 and 1,047 in 2024, both recorded as falling against the usual pattern for their year, with the crude birth rate at 8.7 in 2024 and the general fertility rate (GFR) at 52.4, also falling. The total fertility rate (TFR) was 1.49 in 2023 and 1.59 in 2024. Population rose over the same period, at 119,805 in 2024 and 121,055 in 2025. Four measures of fertility moving the same way across two years is as consistent as an annual series gets.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about Dover. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Live births | 2023 | falling |
| Crude birth rate | 2024 | falling |
| General fertility rate (GFR) | 2024 | falling |
| Live births | 2024 | falling |
These figures carry no defensible direction of their own: a rising house price is good news to an owner and bad news to someone trying to buy, so we do not score one as an improvement. They are shown because they are part of the picture, and they did not decide the view above.
| Measure | Period | Series |
|---|---|---|
| Total fertility rate (TFR) | 2023 | — |
| Population | 2024 | — |
| Total fertility rate (TFR) | 2024 | — |
| Population | 2025 | — |