Standing view · labour_market · Solihull
deteriorating, held with established confidence, formed on 31 August 2026 from movements in 2026-07.
Modelled unemployment in Solihull rose from 5,200 in the year to December 2025 to 5,800 in the year to March 2026. The proportion of residents aged 16 to 64 claiming eased to 3.5% in May 2026, then rose to 3.6% in June. Two readings of the modelled measure both moved unfavourably, and the claimant rate ends the period higher than its May reading, so three of the four figures published here point the same way.
A view is formed only where the evidence names a figure you can check. Each movement listed as a reason had to be large enough to matter and distinctive in at least one way — unusual against this area's own history, unusual against comparable areas, or sustained over several periods. A movement shared with peers counts for less, because it says something about the country rather than about Solihull. Where no figure supports a direction we hold no view rather than a hedged one.
| Measure | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Unemployment count (model based) | 2025-12 | deteriorating |
| Unemployment count (model based) | 2026-03 | deteriorating |
| Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 | 2026-05 | improving |
| Claimants as a proportion of residents aged 16-64 | 2026-06 | deteriorating |